Crude Oil - The Universal Resource

Have you ever started to eat a delicious seven-layer dip, only to look down minutes later and see that half the tray of dip is already gone, and you're fuller than a pig? 

This is sort of what's going on with crude oil. We don't know how big our tray is yet, or when we will run out, but it's a delicious seven-layer dip--one that's succulent and outstanding, and keeps us coming back for more.

One of the major fears that inspires the energy crisis mentality revolves around exactly that--crude oil supplies. And that's the point of disagreement. Some people say we are close to running out, others say there's more than enough for years to come. One thing is clear; regardless of how much oil we have left, we are not near to running out of energy (see previous post). But today in particular, I want to specifically attack the problem of crude oil reserves. How much indeed do we have left?

There were self-proclaimed experts in 2008 saying that the world oil supply was getting so low as to warrant a world crisis in the near future. No one expected that four years later, fracking would become so popular and so economical as to leave any near-term oil concerns far behind us. This article, written in October of 2013, contends that this oil boom will be short-lived. But I'm here in June of 2014 in Colorado, and hydraulic fracturing is bigger than ever, with new wells going up every day.

Can the past be an indicator of how accurate our oil estimates will be? People have been predicting oil shortages every year for the past several decades, but these purported shortages never happen. We keep finding new and better ways to get the same results and make our oil mining more efficient. 

Will we ever actually run out of oil, or will we be converted to more efficient forms of energy before that happens? I think that there's enough crude oil for our societies to make it the next 50 or so years, at our current rate of consumption, as we adjust to more efficient technologies. The amount of shale oil still to be mined is astounding. One thing's for certain -- there's no threat of an oil shortage any time soon. In the far future, let us hope, and work to be converted to more efficient forms of energy before our society starts asking this question again.

This delicious seven-layer dip will hopefully be moving us on toward a ten-layer dip in the future, a more efficient energy source, and a cleaner energy source. How big the tray is, and how much remains left, is a question for the coming days. It's just so important, it can't be overstated, that we do indeed have enough oil energy for right now.